FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.38 – 198.08

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±11.6

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 45.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 42.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 68.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±11.2

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 99.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 0.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 98.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 116, 5353, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 5353, 5587

Auto

32.1 20%

Teleop

97.2 60%

Endgame

31.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 2988, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 2988, 888

Auto

46.4 23%

Teleop

115.8 58%

Endgame

37.9 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.4pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.7
Score range: 131–223
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX435.6

32.1Auto46.4

97.2Teleop115.8

31.8Endgame37.9

37Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	44
teleop	17	191
endgame	22	27
foul	0	0
total	66	262

Result

Final score

66 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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