FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.03 – 181.56

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.6 ±12.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 34.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 0.95Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 14.61Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±12.7

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 92.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 49.24Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 39.38Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 4464, 2900

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 4464, 2900

Auto

14.0 31%

Teleop

9.1 20%

Endgame

21.8 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4456, 6882, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4456, 6882, 2914

Auto

41.2 27%

Teleop

82.5 55%

Endgame

26.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score181.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.5
Score range: 25–207
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.6Season APEX228.5

14Auto41.2

9.1Teleop82.5

21.8Endgame26.3

121Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	28
teleop	40	35
endgame	14	13
foul	0	30
total	67	106

Result

Final score

67 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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