FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.11 – 203.3

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11.2

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 26.1Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 66.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 98.61Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±11.7

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 32.67Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 104.66Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 65.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3714, 4472, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 4472, 5549

Auto

33.4 17%

Teleop

109.7 57%

Endgame

48.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2900, 2537, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2900, 2537, 5243

Auto

62.8 31%

Teleop

96.0 48%

Endgame

41.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score203.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 163–231
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426Season APEX282.2

33.4Auto62.8

109.7Teleop96

48.9Endgame41.3

45Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	47
teleop	132	49
endgame	50	56
foul	0	0
total	219	152

Result

Final score

219 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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