FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.45 – 184.33

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.9 ±12.7

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 20.94Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -9.86Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 41.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±10.5

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 66.53Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 42.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 75.31Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 2912, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 2912, 116

Auto

19.5 51%

Teleop

21.5 56%

Endgame

-2.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 6239, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 6239, 4472

Auto

36.8 21%

Teleop

103.6 59%

Endgame

34.3 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score184.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.9
Score range: 28–208
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.9Season APEX375.9

19.5Auto36.8

21.5Teleop103.6

-2.5Endgame34.3

43Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	19
teleop	29	92
endgame	10	89
foul	0	0
total	65	200

Result

Final score

65 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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