FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.35 – 111.36

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -8.75Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 107.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.4 ±11.6

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 80.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 61.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -30.6Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 8590, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 8590, 5549

Auto

24.7 22%

Teleop

70.1 63%

Endgame

16.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4456, 5587, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4456, 5587, 7886

Auto

20.7 17%

Teleop

51.8 42%

Endgame

51.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.4pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 87–143
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411Season APEX222.4

24.7Auto20.7

70.1Teleop51.8

16.6Endgame51.1

97Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	43
teleop	103	96
endgame	85	45
foul	15	0
total	217	184

Result

Final score

217 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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