FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.86 – 177.3

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.4 ±10.5

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 51.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 22.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 91.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.4 ±10.5

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 68.63Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 37.69Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 70.98Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3373, 4638, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 4638, 1731

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

112.3 59%

Endgame

44.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 449, 6882, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 6882, 2537

Auto

50.4 30%

Teleop

90.7 54%

Endgame

28.3 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.9pts

Blue projected score177.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.4
Score range: 143–200
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.4Season APEX489.4

33.3Auto50.4

112.3Teleop90.7

44.3Endgame28.3

99Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	103
teleop	105	171
endgame	49	55
foul	20	0
total	200	329

Result

Final score

200 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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