FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.88 – 89.13

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 98.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±12.2

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 44.24Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 25.3Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 3.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±13.9

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 20.37Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 42.86Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 25.9Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 2914, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 2914, 2186

Auto

34.6 47%

Teleop

37.7 51%

Endgame

1.9 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5841, 11211, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 11211, 3714

Auto

0.4 0%

Teleop

58.7 64%

Endgame

33.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.9pts

Blue projected score89.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.2
Score range: 50–112
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.4Season APEX158.1

34.6Auto0.4

37.7Teleop58.7

1.9Endgame33.1

79Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	66	0
endgame	24	6
foul	95	0
total	201	21

Result

Final score

201 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 98.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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