FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.1 – 108.34

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.2 ±12.8

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -9.6Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -18.29Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 123.99Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±12.2

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 60.3Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 31.73Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2912, 1446, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 1446, 888

Auto

25.5 30%

Teleop

49.3 57%

Endgame

11.0 13%

Strengths

· 888 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 2988, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 2988, 116

Auto

20.6 22%

Teleop

47.1 50%

Endgame

26.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 73–131
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.2Season APEX204.6

25.5Auto20.6

49.3Teleop47.1

11Endgame26

60Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	47
teleop	27	44
endgame	3	48
foul	0	0
total	64	139

Result

Final score

64 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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