FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.25 – 126.79

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±11.2

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 49.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 103.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 31.22Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.4 ±10.5

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 21.78Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 57.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 47.97Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5587, 5549, 2900

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 5549, 2900

Auto

26.8 15%

Teleop

98.1 55%

Endgame

54.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4821, 1389, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 1389, 11318

Auto

18.9 18%

Teleop

53.7 51%

Endgame

31.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.3pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 104–207
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408Season APEX338.4

26.8Auto18.9

98.1Teleop53.7

54.7Endgame31.9

77Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	22
teleop	88	55
endgame	59	48
foul	0	10
total	200	135

Result

Final score

200 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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