FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.47 – 160.71

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11.7

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -7.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -23.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 75.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.4 ±11.1

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 16.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 42.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 101.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4464, 7886, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 7886, 1727

Auto

11.5 26%

Teleop

6.3 14%

Endgame

25.7 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5353, 6239, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5353, 6239, 5338

Auto

36.9 24%

Teleop

82.4 53%

Endgame

35.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score160.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.2
Score range: 21–184
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.4Season APEX395.4

11.5Auto36.9

6.3Teleop82.4

25.7Endgame35

184Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	27	136
endgame	10	33
foul	0	0
total	50	188

Result

Final score

50 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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