FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.66 – 49.02

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.2 ±13.3

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 36.43Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 11.79Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 50.44Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±10.4

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 3.09Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 41.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 4.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6882, 2912, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 2912, 11211

Auto

18.5 20%

Teleop

51.4 55%

Endgame

24.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4638, 5243, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 5243, 2421

Auto

11.1 29%

Teleop

3.4 9%

Endgame

24.1 62%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score49pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 5%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 25–123
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.2Season APEX234.1

18.5Auto11.1

51.4Teleop3.4

24.3Endgame24.1

27Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	51
teleop	5	76
endgame	5	33
foul	10	0
total	40	160

Result

Final score

40 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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