FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.03 – 71.08

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.6 ±11.6

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 43.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 28.02Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 46.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.7 ±12.7

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.14Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 11.68Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 50.26Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 2421, 3373

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 2421, 3373

Auto

16.5 15%

Teleop

56.7 53%

Endgame

34.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4821, 4464, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 4464, 116

Auto

21.9 33%

Teleop

27.2 41%

Endgame

16.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score71.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 43–146
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.6Season APEX129.7

16.5Auto21.9

56.7Teleop27.2

34.7Endgame16.5

41Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	63	14
endgame	23	17
foul	0	0
total	110	42

Result

Final score

110 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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