FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.51 – 91.1

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±11.6

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 60.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 46.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -14.8Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135 ±13.3

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 39.68Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -11.21Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 62.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1389, 116, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 116, 7886

Auto

3.9 5%

Teleop

48.5 57%

Endgame

32.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5841, 4464, 3373

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 4464, 3373

Auto

6.6 7%

Teleop

35.1 37%

Endgame

53.9 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score91.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.4
Score range: 67–117
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 130.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.7Season APEX135

3.9Auto6.6

48.5Teleop35.1

32.8Endgame53.9

82Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	6
teleop	49	44
endgame	9	22
foul	0	0
total	80	72

Result

Final score

80 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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