FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.52 – 249.02

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 658.1 ±9.3

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 82.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 102.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 40.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.6 ±9.9

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 40.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 121.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 86.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 5338, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 5338, 4472

Auto

33.5 15%

Teleop

128.4 58%

Endgame

58.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6239, 5549, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

249 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 5549, 1731

Auto

39.0 16%

Teleop

146.1 61%

Endgame

56.2 23%

Strengths

· 5549 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.5pts

Blue projected score249pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 203–272
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

658.1Season APEX553.6

33.5Auto39

128.4Teleop146.1

58.9Endgame56.2

61Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	46
teleop	101	148
endgame	42	32
foul	15	0
total	211	226

Result

Final score

211 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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