FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.37 – 111.26

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±11.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 69.1Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 60.95Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 33.32Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±11.6

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 76.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 14.99Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 19.53Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 11211, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 11211, 5353

Auto

20.6 13%

Teleop

108.3 70%

Endgame

26.0 17%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2537, 4821, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2537, 4821, 2186

Auto

37.6 31%

Teleop

57.1 48%

Endgame

25.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.4pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.1
Score range: 88–186
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.8Season APEX221.4

20.6Auto37.6

108.3Teleop57.1

26Endgame25.2

85Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	59
teleop	60	33
endgame	35	14
foul	0	0
total	117	106

Result

Final score

117 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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