FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.78 – 50.06

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

7 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.2 ±12.8

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 34.39Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 32.93Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 31.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±12.4

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 28.67Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 34.88Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -13.49Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2914, 2912, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2914, 2912, 4638

Auto

26.0 25%

Teleop

58.8 56%

Endgame

19.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11318, 3714, 4464

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 3714, 4464

Auto

8.0 14%

Teleop

38.1 66%

Endgame

11.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.8pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.7
Score range: 26–123
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.2Season APEX276.1

26Auto8

58.8Teleop38.1

19.6Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	8
teleop	2	26
endgame	1	15
foul	0	5
total	7	54

Result

Final score

7 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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