FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.66 – 202.79

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±10.5

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 93.84Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 15.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -10.26Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.9 ±11

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 22.19Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 114.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 66.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 2421, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 2421, 7886

Auto

15.5 16%

Teleop

48.9 49%

Endgame

34.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2186, 888, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 888, 5587

Auto

27.0 14%

Teleop

123.7 62%

Endgame

48.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score202.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.1
Score range: 75–227
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX307.9

15.5Auto27

48.9Teleop123.7

34.7Endgame48.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	42
teleop	8	89
endgame	6	28
foul	15	0
total	45	159

Result

Final score

45 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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