FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.64 – 41.82

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.9 ±13.3

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 17.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 28.95Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 27.26Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±12.7

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 4.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -6Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 43.07Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5353, 2900, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5353, 2900, 5841

Auto

18.6 23%

Teleop

21.3 26%

Endgame

42.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6239, 1446, 3373

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 1446, 3373

Auto

13.9 32%

Teleop

9.7 22%

Endgame

19.8 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score41.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 18–98
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.9Season APEX162.4

18.6Auto13.9

21.3Teleop9.7

42.6Endgame19.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	25
teleop	45	55
endgame	17	23
foul	0	0
total	81	103

Result

Final score

81 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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