FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.58 – 159.54

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±10.5

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 23.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 99.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.7 ±10.5

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 57.86Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 88.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 13.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5243, 5549, 4821

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 5549, 4821

Auto

33.7 25%

Teleop

67.0 49%

Endgame

35.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6882, 1731, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 1731, 8590

Auto

28.3 19%

Teleop

76.5 50%

Endgame

47.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28
Score range: 108–184
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.8Season APEX372.7

33.7Auto28.3

67Teleop76.5

35.4Endgame47.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	33
teleop	71	60
endgame	50	15
foul	40	5
total	194	113

Result

Final score

194 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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