FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.4 – 125.97

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.5 ±9.9

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 12.28Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 6.23Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 55.89Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.9 ±11.2

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 39.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 67.84Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.28Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11318, 116, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 116, 1727

Auto

7.5 11%

Teleop

34.5 49%

Endgame

29.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 449, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 449, 11211

Auto

21.9 18%

Teleop

64.0 51%

Endgame

38.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.6
Score range: 51–149
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.5Season APEX435.9

7.5Auto21.9

34.5Teleop64

29.1Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	12
teleop	104	139
endgame	5	72
foul	25	0
total	154	223

Result

Final score

154 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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