FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.3 – 146.71

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156 ±12.7

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 1.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 11.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 29.01Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.5 ±11

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 61.7Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 29.01Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 56Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6239, 7886, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 7886, 2914

Auto

11.8 30%

Teleop

15.4 39%

Endgame

11.9 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4638, 5353, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 5353, 1389

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

74.9 56%

Endgame

31.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score146.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.4
Score range: 17–171
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156Season APEX241.5

11.8Auto27

15.4Teleop74.9

11.9Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	8	58
endgame	19	24
foul	0	0
total	44	100

Result

Final score

44 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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