FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.32 – 241.03

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253 ±11.7

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -3.59Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -0.33Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 49.24Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.8 ±11

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 54.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 140.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 46.02Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1446, 7886, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 7886, 11318

Auto

20.6 55%

Teleop

3.0 8%

Endgame

14.0 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1389, 888, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 888, 6882

Auto

45.4 20%

Teleop

130.4 56%

Endgame

56.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.3pts

Blue projected score241pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.7
Score range: 17–269
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 156.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253Season APEX340.8

20.6Auto45.4

3Teleop130.4

14Endgame56.8

52Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	48
teleop	2	127
endgame	7	45
foul	0	30
total	19	250

Result

Final score

19 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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