FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.99 – 243.44

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±10.5

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 40.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 138.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 131.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 30.81Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 107.65Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 104.98Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 888, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

311 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 888, 1731

Auto

54.5 18%

Teleop

175.0 59%

Endgame

68.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2421, 2537, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 2537, 5338

Auto

44.3 19%

Teleop

129.6 54%

Endgame

64.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score311pts

Blue projected score243.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 215–339
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX459.6

54.5Auto44.3

175Teleop129.6

68Endgame64

5Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	54
teleop	178	87
endgame	80	9
foul	35	0
total	363	150

Result

Final score

363 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Match videos

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