FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.44 – 244.97

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±10.5

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 39.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 137.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 130.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 31.27Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 108.21Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 105.49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 888, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 888, 1731

Auto

52.3 18%

Teleop

175.0 59%

Endgame

69.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2421, 2537, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

245 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 2537, 5338

Auto

43.8 18%

Teleop

135.6 56%

Endgame

62.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score307.4pts

Blue projected score245pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.5
Score range: 217–335
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX459.6

52.3Auto43.8

175Teleop135.6

69.9Endgame62.3

5Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	50
teleop	173	77
endgame	56	79
foul	35	25
total	333	231

Result

Final score

333 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Match videos

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