Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.24 – 162.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±12.7

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 57.33Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 42.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 10.12Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±10.5

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 103.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 29.08Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 29.96Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3205, 6333, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 6333, 157

Auto

20.2 18%

Teleop

62.5 56%

Endgame

28.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1740, 348, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1740, 348, 999

Auto

15.0 10%

Teleop

90.1 58%

Endgame

50.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.2pts

Blue projected score162.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 69–203
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 229.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.6Season APEX411

20.2Auto15

62.5Teleop90.1

28.3Endgame50.5

50Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	43	75
endgame	31	19
foul	30	15
total	119	127

Result

Final score

119 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Match videos

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