Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.91 – 305.95

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 678.1 ±8.8

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 29.28Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 193.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 222.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.8 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 126.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 90.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 88.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 5000, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 5000, 190

Auto

85.6 20%

Teleop

238.1 55%

Endgame

107.0 25%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 9644, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

306 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 467

Auto

59.3 19%

Teleop

183.4 60%

Endgame

62.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score444.9pts

Blue projected score306pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139
Score range: 265–486
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 225.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

678.1Season APEX440.8

85.6Auto59.3

238.1Teleop183.4

107Endgame62.2

34Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	61
teleop	210	144
endgame	112	60
foul	15	15
total	427	280

Result

Final score

427 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Match videos

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