Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
393.42 – 384.33
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
219 – 257
Prediction missed · off by 150.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 41.73Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 173.59Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269Event APEX 178.1Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.1 ±8.8
Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 9.62Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 173.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 201.05Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11483, 2370, 10254
83
/ 100 compatProjected
393.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 11483, 2370, 10254
Auto
76.9 20%
Teleop
218.1 56%
Endgame
95.6 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8544, 5000, 190
85
/ 100 compatProjected
384.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 8544, 5000, 190
Auto
85.4 23%
Teleop
200.0 53%
Endgame
90.2 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score393.4pts
Blue projected score384.3pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.1
- Score range
- 342–435
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
640.7Season APEX678.1
76.9Auto85.4
218.1Teleop200
95.6Endgame90.2
37Consistency28
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 84 | 78 |
| teleop | 79 | 93 |
| endgame | 41 | 66 |
| foul | 15 | 20 |
| total | 219 | 257 |
Result
Final score
219 – 257
Prediction missed · off by 150.9 pts
Match videos
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