Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.15 – 159.52

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 678.1 ±8.8

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 18.87Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 182.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 210.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±10.5

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 102.07Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 27.56Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 29.89Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 5000, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 5000, 190

Auto

89.4 22%

Teleop

210.8 53%

Endgame

99.0 25%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1740, 348, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1740, 348, 999

Auto

15.3 10%

Teleop

90.1 59%

Endgame

46.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score411.2pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.6
Score range: 118–453
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 231.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

678.1Season APEX411

89.4Auto15.3

210.8Teleop90.1

99Endgame46.3

29Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	38
teleop	119	78
endgame	48	75
foul	0	0
total	213	191

Result

Final score

213 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 pts

Match videos

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