Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.79 – 160.07

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±12.2

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 73.14Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 78.47Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 26.18Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364 ±10.5

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 36.86Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 114.64Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 8.57Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2168, 237, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 237, 8567

Auto

23.2 13%

Teleop

87.0 50%

Endgame

64.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 467, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 467, 5347

Auto

38.5 24%

Teleop

84.5 53%

Endgame

35.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.8pts

Blue projected score160.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 121–217
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 216.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.9Season APEX364

23.2Auto38.5

87Teleop84.5

64.4Endgame35

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	31
teleop	34	96
endgame	24	44
foul	0	0
total	93	171

Result

Final score

93 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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