Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.3 – 107.73

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 115.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.2 ±12.4

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 76.8Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 26.84Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7760Griffin Innovations

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 37.66Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.2 ±12.1

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 18.66Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 2.89Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 86.18Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8724, 1474, 7760

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8724, 1474, 7760

Auto

36.8 27%

Teleop

75.1 55%

Endgame

24.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5347, 157, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5347, 157, 1740

Auto

5.6 5%

Teleop

81.3 72%

Endgame

25.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.3pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 68–181
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 480 vs event baseline 223.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.2Season APEX314.2

36.8Auto5.6

75.1Teleop81.3

24.6Endgame25.3

35Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	28
teleop	124	138
endgame	50	80
foul	0	30
total	204	276

Result

Final score

204 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 115.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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