Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.79 – 194.17

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.9 ±13.9

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 26.64Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 21.33Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 12.82Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±12.8

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 13.61Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 121.02Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 59.54Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5491, 6762, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 6762, 716

Auto

15.9 25%

Teleop

27.7 44%

Endgame

19.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2262, 5422, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2262, 5422, 3205

Auto

24.0 12%

Teleop

123.3 62%

Endgame

51.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score194.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.4
Score range: 21–234
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 224.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.9Season APEX359.7

15.9Auto24

27.7Teleop123.3

19Endgame51.2

82Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	20
teleop	17	168
endgame	11	76
foul	0	0
total	33	264

Result

Final score

33 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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