Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.47 – 303.49

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.1 ±11.2

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 91.53Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 6.99Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 90.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.4 ±10.5

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 26.74Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 196.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 80.57Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 10393, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 10393, 467

Auto

52.4 28%

Teleop

107.2 57%

Endgame

28.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11483, 5000, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11483, 5000, 237

Auto

62.8 21%

Teleop

159.5 54%

Endgame

75.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score303.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114
Score range: 149–343
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 224.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.1Season APEX536.4

52.4Auto62.8

107.2Teleop159.5

28.3Endgame75.3

11Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	55
teleop	95	156
endgame	47	63
foul	0	5
total	194	279

Result

Final score

194 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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