Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.85 – 225.59

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.4 ±11.2

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 169.79Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 9.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 10.25Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±12.2

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 47.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 84.77Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 92.88Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 11483, 10393

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 11483, 10393

Auto

51.4 27%

Teleop

85.7 45%

Endgame

52.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4048, 1740, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 1740, 467

Auto

36.2 16%

Teleop

147.4 66%

Endgame

40.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.9pts

Blue projected score225.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.7
Score range: 150–266
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 223.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.4Season APEX355.1

51.4Auto36.2

85.7Teleop147.4

52.8Endgame40.7

52Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	32
teleop	153	92
endgame	65	61
foul	0	5
total	265	190

Result

Final score

265 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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