Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.18 – 123.05

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.7

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 33.87Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 11.92Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 154.39Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±12.2

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 37.77Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 80.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 4.68Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 2262, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 2262, 2079

Auto

30.3 15%

Teleop

84.4 43%

Endgame

81.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 999, 237, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 999, 237, 716

Auto

16.3 14%

Teleop

56.2 49%

Endgame

42.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score123.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.1
Score range: 83–240
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 220.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.3Season APEX298.5

30.3Auto16.3

84.4Teleop56.2

81.5Endgame42.4

14Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	27
teleop	119	48
endgame	67	50
foul	15	5
total	245	130

Result

Final score

245 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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