Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.53 – 486.11

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 669

Prediction correct · off by 122.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±13.9

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 22.34Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 56.55Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 23.64Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.4 ±9.8

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 38.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 164.12Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 283.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 3205, 2168

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1474, 3205, 2168

Auto

16.1 16%

Teleop

61.9 61%

Endgame

24.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4628, 1768, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4628, 1768, 3467

Auto

75.5 16%

Teleop

288.0 60%

Endgame

120.2 25%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.5pts

Blue projected score486.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -383.6
Score range: 64–525
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 834 vs event baseline 217.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191Season APEX741.4

16.1Auto75.5

61.9Teleop288

24.2Endgame120.2

73Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	148
teleop	91	373
endgame	51	148
foul	5	0
total	165	669

Result

Final score

165 – 669

Prediction correct · off by 122.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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