Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.42 – 264.33

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±11.6

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 100.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 3.22Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 78.3Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±10.7

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 175.04Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 44.23Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 45.06Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5112, 5347, 6333

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5112, 5347, 6333

Auto

34.9 19%

Teleop

110.3 60%

Endgame

38.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 3634, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 3634, 348

Auto

58.0 22%

Teleop

146.7 56%

Endgame

55.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.4pts

Blue projected score264.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.9
Score range: 143–303
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 217.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.1Season APEX511.1

34.9Auto58

110.3Teleop146.7

38.1Endgame55.8

62Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	58
teleop	72	167
endgame	23	56
foul	0	0
total	137	281

Result

Final score

137 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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