Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.89 – 160.49

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±10.8

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 9.5Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 25.23Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 316.16Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.5 ±12.7

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 79.28Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 64.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 16.96Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 716, 11483, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 716, 11483, 3467

Auto

69.2 20%

Teleop

191.5 55%

Endgame

84.7 25%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 237, 3205, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 237, 3205, 157

Auto

17.1 11%

Teleop

96.0 60%

Endgame

47.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score350.9pts

Blue projected score160.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 190.4
Score range: 120–391
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 223.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.9Season APEX273.5

69.2Auto17.1

191.5Teleop96

84.7Endgame47.5

54Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	13
teleop	247	104
endgame	94	35
foul	0	5
total	427	157

Result

Final score

427 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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