Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.61 – 469.92

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 622

Prediction correct · off by 96.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.5 ±12.2

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 94.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 9.63Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 79.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.9 ±8.8

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 267.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 61.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 140.87Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5112, 97, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5112, 97, 237

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

120.0 67%

Endgame

22.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3467, 9644, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3467, 9644, 2079

Auto

74.7 16%

Teleop

293.1 61%

Endgame

112.3 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.6pts

Blue projected score469.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -286.3
Score range: 145–509
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 847 vs event baseline 214.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.5Season APEX692.9

37.6Auto74.7

120Teleop293.1

22.7Endgame112.3

39Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	132
teleop	111	340
endgame	72	150
foul	5	0
total	225	622

Result

Final score

225 – 622

Prediction correct · off by 96.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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