Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.16 – 158.84

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±11.1

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 63.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 78.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 3.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±12.8

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 39.07Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 60.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 59.39Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 237, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 237, 5347

Auto

22.9 15%

Teleop

110.2 71%

Endgame

22.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3205, 4048, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 4048, 999

Auto

20.0 13%

Teleop

93.4 63%

Endgame

35.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.2pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.7
Score range: 106–198
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 216.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.1Season APEX333.1

22.9Auto20

110.2Teleop93.4

22.7Endgame35.6

90Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	104	107
endgame	33	70
foul	0	0
total	169	191

Result

Final score

169 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.