Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.82 – 372.92

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±11.7

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 113.17Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 33.38Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 20.27Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472 ±11.2

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 112.2Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 47.43Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 213.29Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5422, 11483, 97

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 11483, 97

Auto

33.0 20%

Teleop

85.2 52%

Endgame

44.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 2168, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1100, 2168, 10254

Auto

65.6 18%

Teleop

187.9 52%

Endgame

107.5 30%

Strengths

· 10254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score372.9pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -206.1
Score range: 129–411
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 211.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.8Season APEX472

33Auto65.6

85.2Teleop187.9

44.2Endgame107.5

45Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	82
teleop	52	140
endgame	34	62
foul	0	0
total	127	284

Result

Final score

127 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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