Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.78 – 103.49

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±12.4

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -0.23Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 75.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 72.12Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398 ±11.7

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -40.16Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX -19.49Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 163.14Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1027, 4048, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1027, 4048, 348

Auto

16.2 11%

Teleop

66.7 47%

Endgame

59.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 157, 716, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 157, 716, 2370

Auto

33.4 33%

Teleop

41.8 41%

Endgame

26.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.8pts

Blue projected score103.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.3
Score range: 65–186
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 211.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.2Season APEX398

16.2Auto33.4

66.7Teleop41.8

59.2Endgame26.3

8Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	27
teleop	30	161
endgame	16	63
foul	0	0
total	71	251

Result

Final score

71 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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