Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.94 – 100.31

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

439 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.4 ±10.5

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 148.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 35.76Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 73.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209 ±12.8

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 17.05Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 6.86Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 76.4Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 999, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5000, 999, 1740

Auto

48.0 19%

Teleop

146.3 59%

Endgame

53.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6762, 8567, 4628

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6762, 8567, 4628

Auto

15.2 15%

Teleop

50.6 51%

Endgame

33.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score257.9pts

Blue projected score100.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.6
Score range: 62–296
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 210.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.4Season APEX209

48Auto15.2

146.3Teleop50.6

53.2Endgame33.8

5Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	13
teleop	282	21
endgame	97	16
foul	0	0
total	439	50

Result

Final score

439 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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