Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.11 – 103.64

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217 ±12.7

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX -8.2Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 17.05Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 66.26Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±12.4

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 75.74Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 27.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 0.19Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5347, 1474, 1757

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5347, 1474, 1757

Auto

19.5 24%

Teleop

36.6 44%

Endgame

26.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8724, 10393, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8724, 10393, 5491

Auto

39.1 37%

Teleop

42.2 40%

Endgame

24.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 37–142
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 213.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217Season APEX378.8

19.5Auto39.1

36.6Teleop42.2

26.4Endgame24.9

59Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	26
teleop	85	69
endgame	19	29
foul	0	0
total	114	124

Result

Final score

114 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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