Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.6 – 199.32

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±10.7

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 46.11Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 91.8Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 166.69Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.4 ±11.7

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 35.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 141.48Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 22.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4048, 8724, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 8724, 2370

Auto

54.2 18%

Teleop

174.5 58%

Endgame

70.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11483, 2079, 2168

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11483, 2079, 2168

Auto

44.3 23%

Teleop

87.2 45%

Endgame

63.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score304.6pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.3
Score range: 156–348
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 239.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX354.4

54.2Auto44.3

174.5Teleop87.2

70.3Endgame63.2

17Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	25
teleop	169	127
endgame	76	104
foul	15	0
total	327	256

Result

Final score

327 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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