Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381.2 – 351.86

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 153.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±10.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 234.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 11.56Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 135.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.1 ±11.2

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 119.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 44.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 187.82Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 5494, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 5494, 1100

Auto

55.3 15%

Teleop

219.7 58%

Endgame

105.3 28%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 467, 2262, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 467, 2262, 2370

Auto

76.9 23%

Teleop

193.3 58%

Endgame

63.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score381.2pts

Blue projected score351.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 313–420
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 216.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.8Season APEX466.1

55.3Auto76.9

219.7Teleop193.3

105.3Endgame63.6

75Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	49
teleop	57	61
endgame	49	63
foul	75	0
total	253	173

Result

Final score

253 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 153.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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