Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.86 – 184.44

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.9 ±10.5

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 63.5Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 115.9Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 59.46Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±13.3

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX 25.36Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 76.25Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 82.83Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 2079, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 2079, 237

Auto

41.3 17%

Teleop

134.6 54%

Endgame

71.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1027, 1740, 4628

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1027, 1740, 4628

Auto

14.4 8%

Teleop

84.2 49%

Endgame

75.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score184.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 145–278
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 217.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.9Season APEX316.7

41.3Auto14.4

134.6Teleop84.2

71.3Endgame75

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	18
teleop	190	71
endgame	62	33
foul	0	0
total	289	122

Result

Final score

289 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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