Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.57 – 141.66

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.3 ±11.4

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 54.54Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 167.8Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 4.23Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.1 ±10.5

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -28.73Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 9.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 160.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3205, 1768, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3205, 1768, 5347

Auto

21.7 9%

Teleop

152.4 65%

Endgame

58.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 157, 8567, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 157, 8567, 5000

Auto

54.3 35%

Teleop

79.2 51%

Endgame

20.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.9
Score range: 103–266
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 217.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.3Season APEX480.1

21.7Auto54.3

152.4Teleop79.2

58.6Endgame20.3

70Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	9
teleop	99	38
endgame	17	18
foul	0	0
total	140	65

Result

Final score

140 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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