Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.62 – 57.59

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±12.4

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 191.49Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX -5.38Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 7.51Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±12.8

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 15.28Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 25.47Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 16.84Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 5491, 1474

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 5491, 1474

Auto

45.9 23%

Teleop

109.7 56%

Endgame

41.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10393, 999, 6762

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10393, 999, 6762

Auto

35.4 81%

Teleop

4.7 11%

Endgame

3.7 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.6pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136
Score range: 19–233
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 218.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.4Season APEX218.3

45.9Auto35.4

109.7Teleop4.7

41.5Endgame3.7

112Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	16
teleop	156	33
endgame	55	35
foul	0	0
total	266	84

Result

Final score

266 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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