Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.7 – 185.97

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.5 ±11.2

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 191.18Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 80.18Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 36.34Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338 ±12.8

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 23.74Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 79.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 82.95Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2370, 4628, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2370, 4628, 8544

Auto

50.0 16%

Teleop

165.7 54%

Endgame

91.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5494, 4048, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5494, 4048, 5112

Auto

39.0 23%

Teleop

103.5 61%

Endgame

26.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score307.7pts

Blue projected score186pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.7
Score range: 147–347
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 219.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.5Season APEX338

50Auto39

165.7Teleop103.5

91.7Endgame26.4

31Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	16
teleop	92	75
endgame	88	32
foul	45	0
total	272	123

Result

Final score

272 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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