Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.29 – 202.42

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±12

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -2.25Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 167.24Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 37.3Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340 ±12.2

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 75.74Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 3.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 123.28Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 1768, 3634

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1474, 1768, 3634

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

111.3 56%

Endgame

54.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 237, 5491, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 237, 5491, 5422

Auto

38.1 18%

Teleop

116.4 55%

Endgame

55.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.3pts

Blue projected score202.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 162–242
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 221.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX340

34.4Auto38.1

111.3Teleop116.4

54.8Endgame55.7

63Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	9
teleop	152	105
endgame	25	33
foul	15	0
total	242	147

Result

Final score

242 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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